Before the UConn women’s basketball team and the South Carolina Gamecocks squared off Sunday afternoon, ESPN revealed the preliminary top 16 teams. UConn held the No. 2 seed in the Birmingham Regional 3; South Carolina possessed the top seed in the Birmingham Regional 2.
What transpired at Colonial Life Arena that afternoon could only be described as stunning.
The then-No. 7 Huskies outrebounded the then-No. 4 Gamecocks by 19 and buried 13 triples in an 87-58 blowout. South Carolina’s defeat ended their 71-game winning streak at home, one that began during the 2020-21 season.
It also propelled Connecticut, who entered Columbia ranked second in the NET, to the top spot. Being deemed the NCAA-sanctioned computer model’s top team should automatically make the Huskies a No. 1 seed, right?
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Several bracketologists disagree with this notion. Part of their reasoning involves the programs currently holding the No. 1 seeds.
The No. 3 UCLA Bruins and No. 2 Texas Longhorns, both of whom beat the No. 6 Gamecocks, have suffered three combined losses. Both programs currently have at least nine Quad 1 wins, at least three of which came on the road. The No. 1 Notre Dame Fighting Irish defeated No. 5 UConn and Texas at home, though that accounts for one-third of their Quad 1 victories. It is worth noting that Notre Dame has not lost since going 0-2 in the Cayman Islands Classic.
South Carolina, meanwhile, has 10 Quad 1 wins, six of which came against teams ranked in the NET’s top 15. Even though they have less than half of the Quad 1 victories that the Gamecocks do, the Huskies have suffered as many losses (three). Both championship-winning programs have endured two defeats on the road and one at home.
UCLA and Notre Dame, barring an epic collapse, should secure two of those No. 1 seeds. It might take until Selection Sunday to determine which teams get those other two, however. Remove the Longhorns, who have a legitimate shot at earning one of the spots, and it is a fight between four teams.
As things stand, Connecticut is competing with the No. 7 LSU Tigers, No. 4 USC Trojans and South Carolina for that last top seed.
The Huskies possess RPI’s best and the NET’s second-best non-conference strength of schedule. It is way higher than the non-conference SOS ranking that the Tigers possess. Louisiana State went an impressive 15-0 outside of the Southeastern Conference. That record does not look that splendid, though, when considering that they had just one Quad 1/Quad 2 game outside of the Bahamas.
Southern California defeated UConn in Hartford and handed the previously-unbeaten Bruins their first loss of the year seven days ago. But the Trojans’ triumph over the Huskies is just one of three Quad 1 games they have played beyond the Big Ten Conference.
The Gamecocks, meanwhile, have a non-conference slate as strong as Connecticut’s. Eight of South Carolina’s 14 non-SEC contests came against teams in the top 60 of the NET rankings. Six of those contests are currently considered Quad 1 games.
Sporting a non-conference schedule like the one the Huskies and/or the Gamecocks have benefits teams when the NCAA Tournament rolls around. Going 10-3 in non-conference play with eight Quad 1 and Quad 2 games looks better than going 10-1 or 15-0 with three Q1/Q2 opportunities.
The Big East Conference also contributes to where UConn stands regarding their NCAA Tournament projections. The Huskies are one of six teams ranked in the NET’s top 100, which makes the Big East the fifth-strongest conference. Simultaneously, however, the league's other 10 teams have one combined win in Quad 1 games. That honor falls to the Georgetown Hoyas, who beat the Richmond Spiders (34th in the NET) on the road with a buzzer-beating three-pointer.
Outside of the No. 23 Creighton Bluejays, most of Connecticut’s conference contests are not Quad 1 opportunities. The Villanova Wildcats, Marquette Golden Eagles, St. John’s Red Storm and Seton Hall Pirates are all Quad 2 games away from home. Those four league contests are the only ones excluding Creighton in those top two quadrants.
The Huskies have the advantage of winning each game against those specific schools thus far by double digits. The Bluejays had the closest contest against UConn in Big East play; the visitors emerged victoriously from the CHI Health Center by 11 points. Every other conference opponent fell to the Huskies by more than 15. LSU, South Carolina and USC do not have that same edge, but they compete in much tougher leagues.
Connecticut’s best opportunity to strengthen its case for a No. 1 seed will come in two places in the Nutmeg State. The first is at the XL Center on February 27 when the Huskies host the Bluejays. The second is at Mohegan Sun Arena next month if UConn takes on Creighton and/or Marquette in the Big East Tournament. St. John’s, Villanova and Seton Hall can each raise their NET between now and March 7, though they cannot afford many mistakes.
Winning each remaining game is important, but the Huskies can still secure a top seed based on what other schools do. UCLA and USC meet again at Pauley Pavilion on March 1. Notre Dame faces the No. 13 NC State Wolfpack at Reynolds Coliseum on Sunday. The Gamecocks, Tigers and Texas each have at least one Quad 1 road contest left.
That is just in the regular season. The chaos could increase tenfold come the conference tournaments. Who knows, multiple teams seeded fifth through eighth in those postseasons could spoil some program’s chances at a top seed.
Head coach Geno Auriemma mentioned beforehand how last Sunday’s contest was more about proving a point than playing for seeding. Connecticut resoundingly achieved that goal when they handed South Carolina their worst home loss since 2008.
In pulling that upset off, the Huskies earned their spot in the No. 1 seed conversation. Come Selection Sunday, UConn’s pursuit of a 12th national championship should commence as a No. 1 seed.
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