This Friday, the 8-seed UConn men’s basketball team starts their March Madness quest for a third consecutive NCAA title. Their journey started the day after the 2024 nets were snipped and continued into opening night, conference play and the Big East Tournament.
But now the Huskies are just six games away from making their dreams a reality. Their first task will be Friday at 9:25 ET against Oklahoma, the 13th best team from what was an absolutely loaded SEC. The conference is responsible for over 20% of the bracket (14 teams) and has some people arguing that it’s the best of all time.
The test for power conferences like that is twofold: can the lower-level teams win games? Texas has already failed to do so. And can one of their top teams win the national championship? UConn will try to do their work in making the former not happen, taking on a Sooner squad that got used to losing in conference play.
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After going a perfect 13-0 in their non-conference slate with wins against Arizona (NCAA 4-seed), Louisville (8) and Michigan (5), they flopped in the SEC. Oklahoma had multiple 4+ game losing streaks, each with at least a game lost by 20+ points.
They did win their last two conference games and the first SEC tournament matchup–all to NCAA tournament teams–but lost to Kentucky on a buzzer-beater by former Sooner Otega Oweh.
UConn has done a bit more winning down the stretch, stringing together five-straight victories before getting bounced by Creighton in the BET. They looked much better in that span, but it’s important to note that the only win against a tournament squad was at home against 7-seed Marquette.
Let’s move into my 3, 2, 1 preview: Three important stats for the game, two Oklahoma players to watch and one prediction of how the game will go.
3 STATISTICS
OFFENSIVE EFFICIENCY - Both of these teams are much better on the offensive end of the floor than the defensive, so expect a lot of scoring. UConn and Oklahoma are each in the top 25 nationally offensively, but are well outside the top-50 defensively. Also notable is the difference in the way the teams get their points.
UConn takes a much more patient approach, one of the 30 slowest teams in the country on offense. Oklahoma, on the other hand, is top 70 in pace, trying to speed their opponent up. While we can project that the offense will come relatively easily for both sides, one of the deciding factors will be who is able to control the pace of the game.
3-POINT SHOOTING - Defense on the 3-point line has long since been an issue for UConn and it seems like it’s more than a blip. They are a bottom half team at allowing threes, while Oklahoma is great at shooting them. The Sooners hit on 37% from deep (35th) and allow just 30% of looks to go in (22nd).
Any sort of discrepancy from beyond the arc–in this case Connecticut not hitting and allowing too many threes from the Sooners–could make or break the game. Creighton shot lights-out to start the BET semis, which ultimately put the Huskies in a hole they never climbed out of. Looking at these numbers, Oklahoma is well-positioned to do the same.
PRODUCTION INSIDE THE ARC - On the contrary, UConn will pose issues for the Sooners in the paint. The Huskies are one of the top 20 teams at defending 2-point attempts and are No. 2 in the country in Block %. It should be noted that their tendency to over-help on the inside leads to wide open triples for opponents, but Oklahoma is still one of the better interior teams in the nation.
UConn also has the upper-hand when they have the ball in the paint, a top-20 squad at scoring deuces, while Oklahoma has a lot of trouble defending them (bottom 50). Along with UConn’s excellence on the offensive boards and the Sooners’ struggles allowing them, interior dominance is a must if the Huskies want to win. That means that either Tarris Reed Jr. or Samson Johnson will have to step up. If rebounding is a priority though, I’d bet on Reed Jr..
2 PLAYERS
JEREMIAH FEARS - Fears is the top option on the Sooners and is also a projected lottery pick in this year’s NBA draft. He’s a three-level scorer, though is less efficient from three (27%), and can do it all. Fears is fantastic at feeling out the defense and taking what he can get, especially when it comes to drawing fouls.
Foul trouble has been an issue of the Huskies’ all year, with their defensive free throw rate in the bottom 40 in the country. Playing against someone like Fears who can draw fouls is not good for the Huskies. Not only can he do that, he also has solid vision, enabling him to kick it out to shooters if he pulls the defense in. It’s not a mistake that Fears is a high-level guard prospect as a freshman. He does a lot of positive things offensively and will be a tough matchup for Hassan Diarra.
JALON MOORE - While Fears is the offense’s main creator, Moore benefits tremendously from it. Moore is an athletic wing who likes to score around the rim with putbacks and dump downs, but can also punish a sagging defense.
He’s a great catch-and-shoot shooter, with a reliable stroke. With UConn’s tendency to overhelp on the interior and drift off shooters, it’s not hard to imagine Fears driving, pulling the defense in and sending the ball to Moore either on the wing or on the inside for a slam. The combo of those two, if not properly prepped for, could spell trouble for the Huskies. They play well to Connecicut’s weaknesses.
1 PREDICTION
78 - 73 UConn
Even with Oklahoma’s success in areas where UConn isn’t as great, it’s tough to see the Huskies losing in the first round to a team that has lost so much this year. In what could be the last game for Diarra, Alex Karaban, Liam McNeeley and Johnson, they’re not going to want to be one-and-done in the tournament. The offense will click and Reed Jr. will have a monster game, similar to against Providence. While Fears and Moore will do damage, they’ll be the only effective ones and the Huskies will move on to face Florida. But that game won’t be nearly as winnable…
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