UConn men's basketball's improvements in first year under Hurley
Being a UConn fan in 2018-19 means being victim to a roller coaster of emotions.
There was the exhilaration of the Syracuse win, followed by the crash back to Earth with a deflating Iowa loss the next day. Blowout wins in buy games (they’re back!) were quickly cancelled out by deflating losses to Florida State and Arizona. The Villanova game in itself was a wild ride with a horrific ending.
So you’ll have to excuse the fanbase for reacting to Saturday’s 80-60 rout of Wichita State with cautious optimism.
The 12-8 (3-4) record is nothing special, and some corners of UConn Twitter have questioned exactly how much better this team is than last year's. Since the wins and losses aren’t markedly different (the Huskies were 11-9 and 4-3 in conference after 20 games last year), it is a fair question to ask.
It’s also a question with a clear answer: UConn is still not a great team, but it is worlds better than last year.
Offense
By the numbers (national rank in parentheses):
Hooray for being merely mediocre!
Mind you this is with virtually the same team, minus Terry Larrier and plus a (hopefully) healthy Alterique Gilbert.
One of the key differences is that UConn has increased its tempo significantly from last year. The Huskies still don’t play at a break-neck speed, but they get enough in transition to suit their guard-heavy lineup that isn’t quite as adept in the half-court. UConn still isn’t a great shooting team and its front court is a work in progress, so playing games with more than 70 possessions is certainly preferred.
And when UConn plays in the half-court, it runs, you know, an offense — something you couldn’t really say the last few years. You might recall a coach telling NBC’s Rob Dauster that UConn was the easiest scout he’s ever seen. What helps is that UConn has simply given itself more options. Jalen Adams can create for himself, which he’s always been able to do, to a degree, but Christian Vital has been on a tear from deep and Tyler Polley has had his moments on the perimeter. Josh Carlton has shown substantial improvement, even in just the last few weeks, and his footwork, rebounding, and ability to finish were all on display against Wichita State.
UConn’s decision making, particularly from the backcourt, still needs improvement. Adams has a frustrating penchant for turning it over and the team as a whole can fall in love with the three after a few makes, forgetting that it’s not their strength. If you’re going to play at the pace Dan Hurley wants the team to play at, mistakes are going to happen. You’ll take your share of turnovers. But the Huskies are going to have to be a little crisper and a little smarter to go from a middle-of-the-pack AAC team to a postseason team.
Defense
By the numbers (national rank in parentheses):
There were a handful of games last year where UConn was simply outclassed. The other team had superior personnel 1-5 and it showed on both ends. Guards were able to take guys off the dribble. Bigs feasted on a freshman Carlton and [checks notes] Eric Cobb, I guess? Frontcourt players seemingly entered the game with two fouls. The talent isn’t much better now, but Hurley and his staff have been able to partially make up for it.
UConn has been able to force some turnovers simply by pressing at the right times and upping the intensity of its on-ball defense. When guys get beat, Carlton, Cobb, and others are better at making stops in the lane and getting in position to rebound. They can defend effectively without fouling. And to think those two will have to face Akok Akok in practice every day on both ends…
Perimeter defense is improving and the Huskies have already made strides. UConn ranks second in the conference in three-point percentage defense (27.0), and just by watching, seems to be a step faster in closing out on shooters. There are also fewer breakdowns that leave a shooter wide open and teammates are quicker to help. Take the numbers with a grain of salt, however, as UConn has really only faced one AAC team (Tulsa) whose strength comes from the perimeter. For what it’s worth, the Huskies held the Golden Hurricane to 5-13 shooting from three in that game.
Projection
It would have been foolish to expect the program to go from two straight sub-.500 years to NCAA Tournament caliber right away and UConn clearly isn’t there yet. But the Huskies are good enough to beat up on the bottom of the AAC and scratch out an NIT bid. KenPom projects UConn to finish the regular season at 18-13 and 9-9 in the conference. Assuming that equates to a spot in the 8-9 AAC Tournament game, it’s reasonable to expect UConn to enter Selection Sunday at 19-14 with an extra game or two on an ESPN network later that week. That’s not bad for a program expected to enroll a strong recruiting class that can still get better.
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