0-3: Where do the Huskies go from Here?

I took some time to mull things over from the results of the past two weeks, and really the season so far. It’s time to talk about it.

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Disappointing is an understatement. This is a team coming off a bowl appearance and returning several starters, most notably the entire OL and DL (minus the C position, which we’ll get to). The expectation, naturally, was for the team to improve. After starting 0-3, including a loss at home to FIU, who UConn beat 33-12 last season, fans are right to ask, “what gives?”

The first thing to mention in comparing this season to last season is luck/fortunateabliity (not a word, whatever). UConn got Fresno State at home, without its star QB and OL personnel, having flown across the country to play in an empty stadium on a cloudy, 55 degree afternoon. UConn was able to hold the Bulldogs to 30 rushing yards and eked out a 19-14 win. BC, of course was without most of the OL, and had Phil Jurkovec at QB, which, watch a Pitt game this year and you’ll see he just regressed since the 2021 season. Liberty came in off an emotional win at Arkansas, and also had their HC with one foot out the door. That’s a lot of luck, or fortunate situations, however you want to look at it.

Losing Jake Guidone at center seems to have had a huge effect on the OL. Yakiri Walker takes over, and he’s a bit on the smaller side, but the staff likes his athleticism. So far, teams have been exploiting that weakness on the line, forcing guards Christian Haynes and Noel Ofori-Nyadu to help. Chase Lundt has had highly rated games by PFF, but a holding call on UConn’s last drive wiped away a touchdown that would’ve sent the game to OT had the XP been good. It’s no secret UConn is a run first team, but they always have been, so it was concerning to see UConn only muster 50 yards on the ground against Georgia State. Things were better this past week, but again, this is a team they rushed for 295 yards against last season, a far cry from the 173 on Saturday. Allowing only four sacks so far has been good, but the ypc is down to 3.9 from 4.7.

And not in a good way. The Huskies are averaging 15 points per game through the first three games, good for 124th nationally. On social media, OC Nick Charlton has drawn a lot of ire for his conservative play calling, and lack of a passing game. The decision to start his former QB, Joe Fagnano, who has since been lost for the year due to a shoulder injury, was met with confusion from the fan base. Was there ever a real competition, or was Fagnano anointed starter well before the “competition?” Phil Steele had Fagnano as the starter when his magazine came out in June, well before fall practice began and after speaking to Jim Mora. Ta’Quan Roberson started this past Saturday with the same results, more or less. His accuracy is still an issue, and when he was accurate, receivers dropped passes. UConn has habitually not converting on 1st and 2nd down, leading to 3rd and longs. It is not a recipe for success, not for this offense.

Do the Huskies change coordinators? Who is waiting in the wings? That’s the million dollar question now, and seemingly the only answer is Pass Game Coordinator John Marinelli, which may not assuage fans. Marinelli has experience calling plays as an assistant and later head coach at New Canaan, and Greenwich, respectively. There doesn’t seem to be much of a solution. On the defensive side, the defense has regressed since last season, and fans are questioning Mora acting as both HC and DC. Similarly, who takes over? Can Mora relinquish control after having it for almost two years now? Or ultimately, do the coordinators not matter, and it’s a matter of talent?

The defense feels like it has regressed since last season. When looking at the numbers, however, the yardage allowed isn’t very materially different. So far in 2023, the Huskies are allowing 194.3 ypg, good for 41st nationally. They’ve allowed 179.7 on the ground per game, that’s 114th nationally. We saw the struggles with rushing defense in the NCSU and Georgia State games. The Wolfpack’s Brennan Armstrong was held without a big gainer, but he kept getting six, seven, eight yard gains, keeping drives alive and demoralizing the defense. Georgia State’s Darren Grainger demoralized the defense in a different way, breaking off a 65 yard TD run to open the scoring untouched up the middle. He also got a 1st down on a 3rd and 17. The Huskies were able to keep FIU Keyone Jenkins in check in terms of rushing, but he made them pay through the air, amassing 284 yards.

Last season, the Huskies allowed 210.8 passing ypg, and 169.7 on the ground. They’re really missing DB Tre Wortham, and LBs Ian Swenson, and Brandon Bouyer-Randle. UCF/Kansas transfer Eriq Gilyard has seen very little play, and Delaware transfer Noah Plack has stepped up with the third most tackles on the team but has found himself out of position at times, notably on the Grainger TD run. Without Wortham, they have struggled to get turnovers. They have yet to get an interception this year, but did recover a fumble against Georgia State. DBs were burned on a couple long TDs by the Panthers yesterday, which did not inspire much confidence against teams that love to throw, most notably next week’s opponent Riley Leonard and the Duke Blue Devils.

Penalties have been killer thus far for the Huskies. The Huskies have been penalized twenty times for 186 yards so far in 2023, but it’s been the timing that has been killer. In the Georgia State game, any moderately long gain on the ground was brought back due to a hold. Against FIU, a face mask penalty kept a Panther drive alive, and of course a Chase Lundt hold on the final drive negated a UConn TD that with an XP have tied the game. Meanwhile, UConn’s opponents have been whistled for just eleven penalties and 93 yards, an average of 31 per game, so the Huskies are being penalized at twice the rate of their opponents. Last season, the Huskies had 92 penalties for 780 yards, while their opponents were whistled 67 times for 607.

And I’m not just saying that because I work for Rivals. Let’s look at UConn’s last four recruiting classes.

You can supplement with the portal, but at some point you need better HS talent coming in. If you’re good enough to make a significant impact at UConn, why wouldn’t you take your talents elsewhere? I think that’s what UConn is up against. They need and are trying to get P5 talent, but the P5 talent wants to play in the P5. UConn has the facilities, some history of getting guys to the NFL, even in the leanest years, but no conference. Without a fertile recruiting ground for FBS talent, it’s hard to build a roster. If you’re from the mid-Atlantic or southeast and have offers from Sun Belt schools and UConn, why would you choose UConn over those others like Coastal Carolina, Appalachian State, etc?

We saw that this past weekend with FIU. A true freshman QB from Miami, and a roster full of players from the area, and is in an area that would be a destination for many transfers. Storrs is not a destination. Add in the stadium off campus and a lack of college football culture here, and the deck is stacked against the Huskies.

Mora is aware of the challenges this position poses, he wouldn’t have taken the job if he hadn’t. He shows disappointment in the start and vows to fix it, and he well may, but he can’t fix the problems noted in the previous section overnight. Despite bringing in some P5 talent, they have not lived up to expectations. Geordon Porter, Jalen Mitchell, Louis Hansen, Alex Honig, although he’s been injured, all have either not seen much of the field or have struggled. On the defensive side, we have yet to see impactful minutes from Eriq Gilyard, or Zakhari Spears. We’ve seen flashes from Armauni Archie and Mumu Bin-Wahad so far at corner, and have seen RJ Wilkins at times on the DL. The most impactful starter so far has been WR Brett Buckman from FCS Delaware.

I realize I’ve veered off track a bit, let’s get back. Last year was most likely a mirage. The positive is the culture Mora has brought. The team hasn’t quit, they continue fight, they don’t seem to get down, which is good. Many of these players are used to losing and the season will definitely be lost if that mentality comes back. However, culture cannot fix lack of talent, it cannot fix lack of speed, and cannot fix scheme.

UConn has to figure out how to make it an appealing place to play. New Texas State HC GJ Kinne has figured out how to do that in San Marcos, grabbing 39 transfers, many P5, and eight JUCO transfers. He has an attractive offense, one that has put up 42 on Baylor, and 77 on Jackson State. Prior to Texas State, he was at Incarnate Word, where they averaged 52 points per game. This is how you gain an advantage. It’s an offense that players will want to play in.

It’s time to forget about last year. This year is what matters, and the analytics have been correct thus far. UConn needs an infusion of talent in order to compete. Unfortunately, it’s nowhere to be found.

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