Now that we’ve covered projected breakout star Donovan Clingan, we turn to someone who was even more impactful last year, Alex Karaban. Karaban had a freshman season to remember and heavily benefited from coming to campus a semester early after leaving IMG Academy halfway through his senior year.
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LAST SEASON
With a longer prep time than most freshmen get, Karaban was ready to make an impact as soon as he hit the floor. Although Samson Johnson drew the start in the first game against Stonehill, Karaban still showed out with 13 points and four boards. With Johnson getting injured after that one contest, Karaban inherited the starting spot and kept it for the rest of the year.
It would have been difficult to draw last season up any better for Karaban, who flourished in his role as a steady offensive power forward. He reached double figures in his first five games and maintained his composure in tough situations. His shooting from deep was what stood out, with a 40% mark on the season with 164 attempts. He was also top 60 in the country in KenPom’s offensive rating rankings. In late-clock situations, the Massachusetts native was the go-to guy, highlighted by his first half buzzer beater against Miami in the Final Four.
There was never a situation too big for the freshman, as he looked like a seasoned veteran all the way through. It helped that he didn’t need to be anything more than the fifth option, but even holding that role on a national championship squad is incredible for any player.
A part of his game that Karaban got a lot of slack for throughout the year was his defense. As skilled as he was offensively, Karaban struggled the first time around against the power forwards of the Big East. He looked like he was close to figuring out how to contain them, but often had trouble putting the pieces together. Many placed the blame of the initial Marquette and Providence losses on his shoulders, with his difficulty guarding Oso Ighodaro and Bryce Hopkins, respectively. It wasn’t fair to place that type of blame on him individually, but his defensive efforts in those games were certainly not a plus.
As the second half of the season rolled around though, Karaban looked like a completely different player on that end. He stayed in front of his man and began to block shots at a better clip, not looking like an outlier. This coincided with the team starting to win again, so while it wasn’t just about Karaban, his defensive adjustments were a part of the Huskies’ turnaround. His stellar play continued into the championship, as he solidified himself within one of the greatest runs in tournament history.
UNDERLYING QUESTIONS
As a starter on a national championship team, there’s only so far Karaban can go compared to most players in the country. One question that’s reasonable to ask is whether he can put a full season of solid defense together. Odds are, the answer is yes, since he seems to have it figured out, but it’s not something he did last year.
The next question that needs to be asked is whether he can be ‘that-guy’ on a great team. We’ve seen that he can thrive as a fifth option, but can he do well when he’s the primary focus on the scouting report. The Huskies are deep this year, so we may not need to find out, but Karaban looks poised to serve as a leader for the team. He’s mature and likely has what it takes mentally, but it remains to be seen what Karaban can do with a team that is his’.
FLOOR
The floor for Karaban would be one of the biggest sophomore slumps of all time. It’s still hard to imagine him losing his starting spot or holding anything less than an 8-4-35 point-rebound-3-point percentage line, but anything is possible. If Samson Johnson finally has the year people have been hoping he’d have and Karaban’s production dips, then he could fall to the bench, but all of this seems extremely unlikely. More likely is that Karaban evolves into more of a star role and he improves all his stats except for his 3-point percentage mark.
CEILING
Karaban’s ceiling is being the best player on the championship UConn Huskies. While this outcome is still far from likely, with Karaban’s mix of experience and demonstrated ability to grow on the fly, he has what it takes to make this jump. He could score north of 16 points per game and improve his rebounding and defense, with one of his biggest areas of opportunity being his passing game. He won’t have a big chance there with Tristen Newton and Stephon Castle set to be doing much there, but if he could contribute 2-3 assists on a nightly basis it could be a difference maker. All said, Karaban is set to have a phenomenal sophomore campaign as he hopes to take his Huskies back to back.
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